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Old 06-08-2018, 04:21 PM
Seldomseen Seldomseen is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 4,632
Early Monsoon Arrival Maybe?

Please, please, please.....


NWS Phoenix


Quote:
Attention continues to remain focused on the potential for
increasing thunderstorm activity next week across Arizona. The
forecast evolution of the large-scale pattern remains fairly
consistent through Wednesday, in which Arizona will be situated
within general southerly flow aloft and will import moisture
northward. Should start to see isolated thunderstorms developing
across southeast Arizona as early as Tuesday, expanding northward
by Wednesday to include portions of central/eastern Arizona.
This means there`s at least some potential for blowing dust
associated with thunderstorm outflows from southeast Arizona as
early as Tuesday, perhaps persisting each day through next
weekend.


The NAEFS ensemble mean shows around 1-1.25 inch of PW
into the region by Thursday, while the GFS remains more bullish
featuring PW values near 1.5 inch. The latter would be near
climatological records, meaning this would be an extreme outlier
for mid-June. Still quite a bit of model disagreement regarding
the large-scale pattern evolution beyond Wednesday, especially
with the development of a trough near the Pacific coast. The ECMWF
maintains a much stronger trough, and consequently, the midlevel
ridge would be situated farther west, likely suppressing
convection and resulting in warmer temperatures. Other solutions
show a decaying tropical system potentially moving northward
across Arizona, which would have a significant impact on
temperatures. Still appears that moisture will remain well above-
seasonal normals regardless of the exact pattern evolution,
meaning the potential for thunderstorms will exist across the
higher terrain and one or more dust storms next week across the
lower deserts. Will have to see if we can get a favorable enough
environment for thunderstorms across the lower deserts.
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