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-   Juanuary 2008 - Jan 18,19,20 (http://www.azflyandtie.com/flyforum/forumdisplay.php?f=64)
-   -   San Juan weather (http://www.azflyandtie.com/flyforum/showthread.php?t=3502)

tenpoundlunker 01-07-2008 08:28 AM

San Juan weather
 
It looks like they are getting hammered today with snow. Accuweather (which usually isn't too accurate) says about 7-10" there today. The projected forecast looks cold!!!! Better bring alot of wiskey to keep warm. :beer:

CHIEF 01-07-2008 10:27 AM

This morning woke up to 8 inches of snow and in the past 3 1/2 hours recieved 3-4 more inches and looks like a killer weekend for Sunrise Park Resort (We groom all week, so you can play all weekend).

The last time we were at San Juan it snowed and it was some of the best midges fishing I have ever had at the T-Hole, and I can't even count how many I caught on a 1 foot set up...

CHIEF

Seldomseen 01-12-2008 07:46 AM

Long range weather models are just beginning to cover our time frame. These models are showing an arctic air intrusion.

From the NWS Alb:

Quote:

MERIDIONAL FLOW SLATED TO BRING SYSTEMS FROM THE YUKON INTO NM WED
AND THU. THE RESULT WOULD BE COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE FOR
POWDERY SNOW...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...KD
A lot can change between now and then, so stay tuned.

biscut head 01-12-2008 12:10 PM

Yea were going to get heavy snows in the passes.

Seldomseen 01-12-2008 04:21 PM

Afternoon long range discussion NWS, Alb:

Quote:

THE NEXT UPSTREAM STORM SHOULD AFFECT NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS
BRING A DECENT STORM ACROSS THE STATE...WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFS THE
ODD MODELS OUT WITH A WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM GOING BY
TO OUR NORTH. SECOND RUN IN A ROW THE GFS HAS DONE THIS...BUT STILL
RELUCTANT TO LOWER OR REMOVE POPS MUCH. ONLY MINOR CHANGES THEREFORE
MADE IN THE EXTENDED. FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND CHILLY.
CHJ

tenpoundlunker 01-12-2008 09:26 PM

I'm hoping for temps in the 40's but I doubt it will happen. Looks like another cold one! My fingers are already going numb.

Seldomseen 01-14-2008 06:08 AM

Roundup from the NWS technical discussions:


Albuquerque:
Quote:

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY
WITH 700MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -18C OVER THE NE PLAINS AND -8C OVER
THE GILA REGION. NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM TO
KEEP TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK LEE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE WILL BE ONE TO WATCH AS ARCTIC AIR MAY INVADE THE STATE.
Grand Junction:

Quote:

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY ALSO GOOD...SO FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
PERIODIC DISTURBANCES IN NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH SLOW WARMING TREND INTO FRIDAY. NL

MEAN N TO NW FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW. THE IMPROVEMENT MODELS HINTED AT FOR FRI IS NOT THERE
TODAY. WE WELL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
WEAK WAVES OF ENERGY BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY. DJC/21
Flagstaff:

Quote:

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL BEGIN EFFECTING
THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT AND A CHANCE FOR
FLURRIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOWER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AFTER
THIS STORM SYSTEM GOES ON BY ON WEDNESDAY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.

So it looks like there are some things still to shake out, but it looks like a minor storm before we go, cold while we are there, and an approaching storm as we depart.

dbltea 01-14-2008 08:32 AM

As one of my buddies pointed out ...if air temps are in the teens BUT water temps are in the 40s ...then once an hour we strip down, jump in and warm up!:ROFL:

SJDrifli 01-14-2008 08:38 AM

at 6:45 this morning it was 2 degrees in Aztec, oh mama that is cold!!!rantrant

Seldomseen 01-14-2008 08:46 AM

30 degrees of frost = chemical hand warmers for me.

Still a ways out on the forecast.....let's see what happens. Long range models are for amusement. :)


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