Rain in the forcast

[JMC]

I just saw the news and looks like they're forcasting .25 to .50 inches of rain state wide by Tuesday early Wendsday. Hopefully the Whites and Payson will get some more snow as well. Jeff

[Seldomseen]

From the NWS Phx http://newweb.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/ :

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 245 AM MST SAT FEB 25 2006 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION

SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. MEANWHILE...LOWER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TAP BY THEN. && .

SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... NOT ALOT GOING ON WX-WISE DURING THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS STRONG OVER THE SW U.S. TEMPS AS A RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME COOLING IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY OVER FAR WRN CWA IN ADVANCE OF OFFSHORE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM COULD GIVE RISE TO SOME SHOWERS OVER FAR WRN CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CURRENT SLIGHT CHANGES PROBABLY HANDLING THINGS ADEQUATELY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VARYING AMOUNTS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH TOASTY AFTERNOONS...GRADUALLY MILDER NIGHTS AND NO WINDS TO SPEAK OF WITH FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. && .

LONG TERM... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GFS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A TROUGH INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. 12Z GFS A BIT FASTER WITH THE MOISTURE THAN 00Z RUN. 00Z BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN. HOWEVER...EVEN THE 12Z RUN TAKES THE MAIN VORT MAX TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. DESPITE THIS...IT DEPICTS PRETTY DECENT VERTICAL MOTIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERHAPS INFLUENCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT A BIT SLOWER TO BRING IN THE WEAKENING TROUGH. THE UKMET WEAKENS IT EVEN FASTER FOR SUGGESTING A MINIMAL IMPACT. THERE IS ENOUGH INFORMATION TO GO ON AT THIS POINT IN ORDER TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY THEN TRAILING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. DIDNT BUY OFF ON GFS-MEX POPS JUST YET SINCE THE GFS HAS BEEN REPEATEDLY OVERDOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THE SOUTHERN END OF ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS...BUT SHOWED COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS FOR FRIDAY.

---------

Tues/Wed is still long term, and not reliable.....but the models have been showing some run to run consistency and general agreement. A good sign, but a lot can change between now and then.

Keep doing the rain jig.

[Seldomseen]

keep doing the jig. From the NWS Flagstaff:

DISCUSSION...SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE...BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF) INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP THE MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 30N/135W AND DELIVER IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVER OUR CWA WITH WEAK DYNAMICS BUT GOOD UPSLOPE SW WINDS FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WE INCREASED POPS TO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A VERY COLD SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 7500 FEET UNTIL THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE STATE. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT FRIDAY. LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW AS THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK MOIST.

[CHIEF]

I'm going fishing and enjoy the day, I have no control over the CREATOR...

CHIEF

[Seldomseen]

I'm going fishing and enjoy the day, I have no control over the CREATOR...

CHIEF

Look forward to your report.

I realize that the weather is out of our hands, but it's fun to pretend. So, I think I will take the top off the Jeep. That will make it rain for sure. :p

[CHIEF]

I will wash my truck this seems to work sometimes. Oh, by the way headed up to the lakes today and these lake are frozen at 9:30am and they are:

A-1
Sunrise
Cresent
Big Lake

We were headed up to Big Lake to fish be cold weather (ice-over) made us go elsewhere and we ended up at Luna Lake by Alpine, the fishing was slow water temps at 38 degrees, landed 3 with 2 bump for 3-4 hours of fishing. I will be going to Hawely lake on Sunday. But Becker is open but not fishing well from what I heard and also the last time I fished it only caught one.

[Seldomseen]

From the NWS PHX ( http://newweb.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/ ) :

.CLIMATE... ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SITES IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA RECEIVED A TRACE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY...NO RAIN FELL AT SKY HARBOR AIRPORT...SO THE DRY STREAK (ZERO PRECIPITATION...NOT EVEN A TRACE) HAS REACHED 133 DAYS. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN PHOENIX`S RECORDED WEATHER HISTORY...NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD NOVEMBER-FEBRUARY.

[biscut head]

It is hard to believe that these storms just keep missing you guys!! we just got pounded again with 60 mph winds and sleet mix. You see it develop off the coast and say, o.k. this one will surley hit AZ.

[SJDrifli]

Well, Aztec got about 10 drops from this last storm. I think there is a huge, invisible umbrella over the state of NM and AZ! Dang we need rain bad in this region and in AZ! Gonna be a long wait until the monsoons.

[drw57]

I live just north of Payson, our rain gauge had one drop in the bottom. But, it looked like the rim got some moisture. Start doing Rain Dances Don

[CHIEF]

low cloud and raining at times enough to get everything real wet. I hope it keeps up.

CHIEF

[fshfanatic]

I just saw the news and looks like they're forcasting .25 to .50 inches of rain state wide by Tuesday early Wendsday. Hopefully the Whites and Payson will get some more snow as well. Jeff

Shmuck! When we going fishing again? It has been way too long.

[biscut head]

Have you guys gotten rain down there yet in the valley?

[Seldomseen]

The last drop to fally at the airport was a couple hundreths of an inch back in early October, the 8th I think. Biscut, this is before our trip to Idaho.

It's been cracked cuticles and nosebleeds ever since.

[mjl]

Couple raindrops here yesterday, but nothing 'measurable,' so the record continues to grow...

[Seldomseen]

I did talk to mom today.

She said they had a little less than .25" today and about .8" for the year so far up in Nutrioso.

[SJDrifli]

Well, we actually got a little rain last night in Northern NM, was actually pouring off the room and some puddles around. Looks like maybe a 1/10th of an inch maybe a little more. Will help settle the dust for a day or two. Keep your fingers crossed for more this spring.

[biscut head]

We got more valley rain / mountain snow about 3" up here.

[WMF]

None here(phx) i guess thursday and friday they are looking at some rain.... but who knows..

[Seldomseen]

From the NWS Phx ( http://newweb.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/ ) italics added:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
PHOENIX AZ 355 PM MST TUE MAR 7 2006

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MUCH STRONGER AND COLDER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...FOR BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&& .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... SAT IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR CWA...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POPPING UP ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BAND MOVING THROUGH LA PAZ AND YUMA COUNTIES. WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN OUR REAL ISSUE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH SE CA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR CAZ 33...IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM PST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...STILL WATCHING OUR TROF OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THRU CA TODAY...AND THEN EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF FOR OUR CWA...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING AND WED...WITH SNOW ABOVE 5000 FT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY THU...THE TROF WILL HAVE QUICKLY MOVED EAST OF AZ...WITH GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION FORECAST OVER THE WRN CWA...SPREADING EWD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL COOL SEVERAL DEG FROM TODAY TO WED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...AND CONTINUE COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY FRI...WE WILL START TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH COLDER AND STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT ONE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROF...WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CWA WIDE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A RETURN OF POSSIBLE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.

&& .LONG TERM... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL BRING AN END TO THE RECORD DRY SPELL. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS WEEKEND. IT LOOKS AS IF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF THE SERIES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...AND THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWEST IN JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...AS LOW AS 3 THOUSAND FEET. IN GENERALLY IT WILL BE UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR MID MARCH DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THE WEEKEND...LESS WIND IS EXPECTED...AND THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF PHOENIX.

[JMC]

Thanks for the up-date Seldom, hopefully the rain will come. Jeff

[WMF]

Here is a ? doesn't it alway rain on the sportsmans expo? wasn't it messy last year..... if so maybe we could have one a month for a whlie???

[CHIEF]

Everyone wash your car and armoral your tires and shine your chrome so it will rain.....


CHIEF

[biscut head]

I think we all need to get in touch with the creator and plead our case to him, this is what my friend and his people are doing up on the Rosebud. They are Lakota but know of the pain you guys down there are experiencing in AZ, his wife is Navajo. He is always reminding me of how we are literly one nation under the creators skies and that we need to come together. Chief I truly have seen some pretty amazing things performed up there in South Dakota and never rule out anything as far as belief. Looking forward to dripping springs!!

[tightlines57]

Looks like my canoe trip is cancelled due to the forecast. I will gladly give up one weekend to get rain in order to enjoy many weekends during the summer.

Since I have the time off, thinking of fishing Roosevelt. Never been there.